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Hobson’s Choice: Finding the right mix of agricultural and environmental policy for Irish agriculture
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2021-11-16
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Trevor Donnellan, Kevin Hanrahan and Gary J. Lanigan. Hobson’s Choice: Finding the right mix of agricultural and environmental policy for Irish agriculture. Paper prepared for presentation at the 172nd EAAE Seminar ‘Agricultural policy for the environment or environmental policy for
agriculture?‘ May 28-29, 2019. Brussels.
Abstract
Abstract
As part of its international obligations, Ireland faces emission reduction targets with
respect to greenhouse gases (GHG). These reduction targets are to be achieved
both in the short term and over the coming decades. Agriculture is a substantial
source (33%) of Ireland’s GHG emissions.
Whereas the economic welfare of farmers has been the dominant force in shaping
agriculture policy for several decades, there has been a notable increase in
environmental concerns and a gradual emergence of environmental policies which
are relevant to agriculture, particularly in the last 10 years.
The future evolution of the agri-food sector in Ireland must therefore be seen in the
context of both the economic growth objectives of national agricultural policy, as
well as national environmental policy objectives arising from international
obligations. In light of the recent proposals with respect to the EU Common
Agricultural Policy (CAP) post-2020 (EC, 2018), environmental objectives will
become an increasingly important subset of the CAP objectives and the
implementation of the CAP in Ireland.
The EU Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) requires that Ireland reduce its non-ETS GHG
emission by 20% by 2020 relative to the 2005 level. The reduction target for the
non-ETS sector for 2030 is 30%, but incorporates so called flexibility mechanisms
designed to make the achievement of this target less onerous.
A partial equilibrium model of Irish agriculture is used to explore differing future
outcomes in terms of the sector’s size and associated GHG emissions to 2030. The
scenario analysis employed demonstrates the implications of different future
pathways for bovine (dairy and beef) agriculture, the dominant sector in Irish
agriculture and the principal source of its GHG emissions. Mitigation actions are then
factored in to provide measures of future levels of emissions inclusive of this
mitigation capacity.
While technical mitigation actions are largely grounded in interventions that are
based on science, the scenario analysis makes clear that the scale of the ultimate
challenge in mitigating agricultural GHG emissions will be determined by the overall
size of the agriculture sector and the intensity of production per hectare.
The dairy and beef sectors in Ireland are noteworthy for their contrasting levels of
profitability; dependence on support payments; and farm income. Now that the EU
milk quota has been eliminated, from the perspective of economic development, an
increase in the size of the dairy sector and entry into the dairy sector are desirable
economic policy objectives.
However, the paper demonstrates the strong contrast between dairy and beef
farms, not just in terms of income but also in terms of intensity of production per
hectare and the associated level of emissions produced. It follows that a transition
from beef production to dairy production, while desirable from the point of view of
farm income, could have adverse consequences for emissions.