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dc.contributor.authorThorne, Fiona
dc.contributor.authorHennessey, Thia
dc.date.accessioned2017-07-26T11:42:21Z
dc.date.available2017-07-26T11:42:21Z
dc.date.issued2007-01-01
dc.identifier.citationThorne, F. S., Hennessey, T. C. Risk Analysis and Stochastic Modelling of Agriculture, End of Project Reports, Teagasc, 2007.en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11019/1217
dc.descriptionEnd of Project Reporten_GB
dc.description.abstractThis project analysed the role of risk in farmers’ production decisions and the impact of policy changes on risk in agricultural production. · A stochastic budgetary farm level model was developed using Irish National Farm Survey data and FAPRI-Ireland projections. · The model was used to examine the varying level of farmers’ exposure to risk under different policy regimes. · Results showed that under the Mac Sharry and Agenda 2000 regimes of agricultural policy the major incentive for profit maximising farmers to engage in production was to qualify for direct income support. Direct payments were relatively risk free sources of income and therefore risk played only a minor role in the production decision. The results showed that farmers would be exposed to more risk under decoupling. The return to production post decoupling is market based only, as the direct payment is no longer linked to production, and therefore is more exposed to price and production risk. · The stochastic budgetary model, which accounts for price and production risk, was used to estimate the economic trade off between “entitlement farming”, that is retaining farm land only to claim payments and not produce any tangible products, and conventional farming. · The results showed that for less efficient farms, the probability of achieving a significantly higher profit by engaging in entitlement farming is 46 percent, while further analysis shows that there is a 9 percent probability that profits from conventional farming systems would be only marginally higher than the ‘entitlement farming’ option.en_GB
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherTeagascen_GB
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEnd of Project Reports;
dc.subjectAgricultural policyen_GB
dc.subjectrisken_GB
dc.subjectFarmers decision makingen_GB
dc.subjectstochastic budgetary modelen_GB
dc.subjectCommon Agricultural Policy (CAP).en_GB
dc.subjectIrelanden_GB
dc.subjectdecouplingen_GB
dc.titleRisk Analysis and Stochastic Modelling of Agricultureen_GB
dc.typeTechnical Reporten_GB
dc.identifier.rmis5221
refterms.dateFOA2018-01-12T08:49:59Z


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