Long-term Projections for the Beef and Sheep Sectors

Abstract

This study examines the effect of changes in agricultural policy and other important economic factors on the outlook for beef and sheep production in Ireland in future years. The analysis is conducted at an aggregate commodity level for the two sectors. Companion reports provide similar detail on other agriculture sectors (including dairy, pig and cereals) and for related farm level work, see Donnellan (2002), McQuinn and Behan (2002), and Behan and McQuinn (2002). The analysis summarised here took place in 2001 and 2002. The objective of the research reported here was the development and use of econometric models of the beef and sheep sectors, in conjunction with other related commodity models, to produce ten-year projections for the beef and sheep sectors under different policy scenarios. The scenarios analysed related to the second BSE crisis, the reduction and the elimination of export refunds under the auspices of a new WTO agreement, and changes in the regulations relating to the payment of extensification direct payments under the Beef Common Market Organisation (CMO). A series of interlinked economic models capable of projecting key price and output variables were built for the main Irish agricultural commodities, including the beef and sheep sectors, and these in turn were linked with models for the EU and the World. It was thus possible to estimate the implications for the Irish beef and sheep sectors of supply, demand and policy changes at a world and EU level.