Projections of Agricultural Land Use and the Consequent Environmental Implications

Abstract

The research conducted under the project no. 4822 resulted in an extension of the FAPRI-Ireland econometric model of Irish agriculture, established by Rural Economy Research Centre, to include an environmental dimension. The original model was first extended by a forestry component. As a result, the standard output is now enhanced with the additional projections of agricultural land area allocated to forestry. In the next stage the model was developed to enable the conversion of standard agricultural and forestry output into environmental indicators associated with global warming. Therefore, the model currently provides projections of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration from Irish agriculture and forestry. The general objective is to generate projections of net greenhouse gas emissions from Irish agriculture. In order to achieve this objective we extend the existing model to generate projections of: 1. farmers’ uptake of forestry on farmland 2. carbon sequestration from on-farm forests 3. greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities.The forestry component was added to the existing FAPRI-Ireland modelling system. An econometric technique is used to model farmers’ forestry planting decision. The greenhouse gas emissions are calculated following the guidelines provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which have been adjusted for Irish specific conditions. Carbon sequestration levels are generated by applying a methodology developed by COFORD, Ireland. The projections were generated under two policy scenarios. First, it was assumed that there would be no change in agricultural or forestry policy over the projection period. Second, the assumption was made that policy measures are introduced to encourage further extensification of agricultural practices. If there was no policy change, the results suggest that afforestation on farmland would exceed 10,000 ha per annum; However the uptake would not, at any point, reach the level of planting recorded in 2001. As forests planted on farmland mature, carbon sequestration levels are projected to continuously increase in the coming years. On the other hand, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are expected to decline as a result of the projected contraction in the national cattle herd and sheep flock. If policy was reformed to include further extensification of livestock production, it is expected that less agricultural land would be allocated to forestry. The reduction in planting, however, would not be sufficient to significantly affect the carbon uptake levels projected under the no policy change scenario. However, further extensification would lead to further contraction in livestock numbers, which would result in more pronounced reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.