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    Modelling transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis between Irish dairy cattle herds

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    Author
    Biemans, Floor
    Tratalos, Jamie
    Arnoux, Sandie
    Ramsbottom, George
    More, Simon J.
    Ezanno, Pauline
    Keyword
    Johne’s disease (JD)
    stochastic model
    Dairy cows
    infectious disease
    data driven
    Date
    2022-06-22
    
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    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11019/2818
    Citation
    Biemans, F., Tratalos, J., Arnoux, S. et al. Modelling transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis between Irish dairy cattle herds. Vet Res 53, 45 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13567-022-01066-5
    Abstract
    Bovine paratuberculosis is an endemic disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map). Map is mainly transmitted between herds through movement of infected but undetected animals. Our objective was to investigate the effect of observed herd characteristics on Map spread on a national scale in Ireland. Herd characteristics included herd size, number of breeding bulls introduced, number of animals purchased and sold, and number of herds the focal herd purchases from and sells to. We used these characteristics to classify herds in accordance with their probability of becoming infected and of spreading infection to other herds. A stochastic individual-based model was used to represent herd demography and Map infection dynamics of each dairy cattle herd in Ireland. Data on herd size and composition, as well as birth, death, and culling events were used to characterize herd demography. Herds were connected with each other through observed animal trade movements. Data consisted of 13 353 herds, with 4 494 768 dairy female animals, and 72 991 breeding bulls. We showed that the probability of an infected animal being introduced into the herd increases both with an increasing number of animals that enter a herd via trade and number of herds from which animals are sourced. Herds that both buy and sell a lot of animals pose the highest infection risk to other herds and could therefore play an important role in Map spread between herds.
    Funder
    Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
    Grant Number
    NexusMAP
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    https://doi.org/10.1186/s13567-022-01066-5
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    Teagasc publications in Biomed Central

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